2010 Fantasy Foosball Analysis (Part 1 of 3)
This may be my last year for Fantasy Football - for this year and last, I have only co-owned fantasy football teams. I was dreading the draft as it was coming up and it was actually quite boring right in the middle. So it seems like the passion is dying. If I win this year, it’d be a great way to go out…
Anyway, here is a 3 part analysis of this year’s draft. Part 1 is my Drafting Strategy. This is much different from last year’s. Since last year, I had 2nd to last pick and there was only 8 teams, I drafted positions 1 round before I felt they were going to go. This put me at an advantage since I would be able to get my top rated player at each position, besides running back. And besides having Frank Gore as my feature back, I could have a carousel of backs based on matchups and such. And it seems to have worked out okay.
This year, being in a middle draft position and with a 12-team league, I knew that strategy would not work because I would be stuck with very average players. But here are my cardinal rules of drafting:
1) When playing with a flex position (RB/WR), always draft an elite running back first if there is one available. If you are in the top 6 or 7 spots, you should be able to find an elite RB. This year, I would rate them as: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Michael Turner. How do you differentiate an elite back from say… a normal top tier back (ie: DeAngelo Williams)? Well, an elite back has to be the team’s #1 running back. He has to consistently get you at very minimum 70 yards/week, which should be 7 points. This is on a bad week. On an average week, he should get you 11-15 points… maybe eclipse the century mark in total yards and possibly a score. But most importantly, every few weeks, he has to go wild and surpass the 20 point mark. We’re talking at least 80 yards and 2 scores or break off some huge gains for a score.
2) You should draft an elite receiver over a non-elite back. Yes, this means Andre Johnson goes before DeAngelo Williams or Ryan Grant. Randy Moss too. The reason for this is that at this point, the elite backs have been taken. There should be a good amount of top tier running backs left, though. But there are only a few elite receivers: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss. These guys are the ones who will have monster weeks and that will make up for the few sub-par outings they have. Every receiver will have a few bad weeks. But elite ones will have very few… but they will have some monster outings. We’re talking about at least 100 yards receiving and a couple scores. Or maybe 200 yards receiving and a score.
3) You can hold off on drafting a QB until about the 5th round. If all goes according to plan, you will have a good tandem of RBs and WRs. There should also be some excellent options at QB here still, even if people reach and take QBs early. Here are the elite QBs that may be worth reaching for this year: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees. I wouldn’t pick them 1st or 2nd round, because the drop off between them and Phillip Rivers or Matt Schaub isn’t that great. And if you use an early pick on a QB, you’ll end up having a big question mark at WR or RB. Or both.
4) TEs should be held off until about the 5th round or so as well. There are too many good TEs for you to reach for one. You may not have realized, but the difference between a Brent Celek and a Tony Gonzalez (in terms of fantasy) are not that great. There isn’t much difference between elite TEs like Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis and the 2nd tier of TEs like Celek or Jermichael Finley. So you might as well grab another RB when those names are still are on the board.
5) D/ST and Kickers should be your last picks. Top-rated defenses rarely pan out. There are always surprises also still in free agency. If you reach for a D/ST or a kicker (who nobody cares about), then you’ll just end up with a weaker bench.
6) Sleepers are for your bench. Don’t draft a sleeper hoping to start him. Starters are for sure things or for solid players. A player like Malcom Floyd is a nice pick… but if he doesn’t pan out, you shouldn’t have based your draft around that. Don’t draft a Ryan Matthews expecting him to be the next LaDainian Tomlinson, because if you’re wrong, your season is in trouble.
7) 4 week rule - 4 weeks into the season, you should know whether or not a player is panning out. If you drafted a sleeper and he hasn’t touched the ball much up to week 4, barring any injuries, he probably won’t get many touches in the future. If he’s only averaging 6 points a week, he’ll most likely get the same the rest of the year.
8) Handcuff your top picks with some of your bench players. You don’t want to have say… Shonne Green and then not take LaDainian Tomlinson with a later round pick. Some guys are prone to injury. Get their handcuff at a reasonable price.
9) If you have 2 people you like the same and one is a rookie, avoid the rookie. Why? Rookies tend to struggle towards the end of the season because the NFL season is longer than the college season. You don’t want one of your key assets struggling come fantasy playoff time.
10) Go with your gut. This is gambling. There are no right answers. Unless your gut says to pick Reggie Bush with your first pick in his rookie year. Then you should get a Magic 8 Ball. Or Ask Jeeves.
Part 2 coming soon!
