Things I Learned in Fantasy Football This Year
1) “Sure things” are not the same as sure things. Prior to the start of the season, a lot of experts agreed that Chris Johnson was the #1 pick. If not #1, then at least #2. This definitely made sense, considering his production last year (especially in the second half of the season). I, for one, felt stronger about Adrian Peterson (as you may remember from my earlier posts) because he was a safer pick, and (to pat myself on the back) I was right. But Chris Johnson has proven to be anything but a sure thing. That’s not to say he was a bust. He’s definitely one of the best fantasy running backs this season. But a sure thing does not put up 0 points. Another example, Ray Rice. Some experts ranked him at #3 or 4 – he has been a #2 fantasy RB at best – high ceiling, high risk.
2) Handcuff your #1 RBs. Always, always, always, always, ALWAYS handcuff your #1 RB. I made that mistake this year and I definitely paid for it. Late in Week 11, I had a good feeling of my fantasy team’s chances of winning it all again this year. With a first round bye pretty much locked up, I figured I would just cruise until the playoffs. After reviewing my roster, I decided that I would pick up Brian Westbrook to handcuff Frank Gore as soon as I could (Thursday). My backup running backs were Mike Goodson and Jason Snelling. Goodson was a good waiver pickup, but I haven’t ever used him. Snelling was a pre-emptive pickup since I figured Mike Turner was injury-prone. I figured I’d keep Snelling for another week just in case. Week 12 rolls around, Frank Gore breaks his hip and is done for the season. ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS handcuff your #1 RB.
3) After Week 4, don’t trade solid players for other players based on future expected performances. If you’ve got a good thing going, don’t screw it up by buying low on someone you hope will improve drastically. Case in point: I traded Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, and Marques Colston for Ray Rice. In a league that allows for starting lineups to include 2 RB, 1 Flex & 2 WR, my starters would be Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Roddy White and Randy Moss – a starting lineup that should be unstoppable. Since I made the trade, let’s compare the stats:
Rice: 7, BYE, 17, 9, 18, 12, 4
Moreno: 20, 5, BYE, 21, 17, 15, 17
Colston: 17, 13, 6, BYE, 23, 10, 12
We all know Moss hasn’t amounted to much since I made that trade, so I could have definitely used Colston. Since the trade, Rice has had 67 fantasy points, which is slightly over a decent 11 points/week. Moreno, on the other hand, has had 95 fantasy points, which is good for almost 16 points/week. Even Colston outscore Rice in that time frame, with 81 points, which is 13.5 points/week. All this, based on my expecations that Rice was just having an unlucky start and eventually run wild. Don’t get me wrong, Rice could still pay big dividends for me by winning me the championship. But so far, that trade has really screwed me.
4) Football is a team sport. Okay, I probably didn’t learn it just this year, but I figured it was definitely reinforced this year. No player can do everything themselves. Of course, elite players can put up quality numbers despite a lack of talent around them. But they still need some pieces to help. Here are a few examples:
QB – Elite QBs can put up quality numbers despite having no elite receivers. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady are two prime examples this season. But QBs still need an offensive line that blocks for them. It also improves their stock if they have a serviceable running game to take off some pressure. And ideally, they need good receivers to catch the ball.
RB – Elite RBs need a strong offensive line to block for them. Without blocking, they won’t be the elite fantasy players we expect them to be. Improved blocking boosted Darren McFadden into fantasy stardom. It also helps if they have a QB that likes to throw them the ball or an air game to take some pressure off them.
WR/TE – WRs need someone to get them the ball. See how Larry Fitzgerald suffered when he lost Kurt Warner? See how Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning can turn almost any receiver into a serviceable fantasy option? TEs are a little less affected – in fact they often benefit when the QB isn’t that good and has to look to the TE more often.
D/ST – If your offense keeps turning the ball over or repeatedly goes 3-and-out, you probably won’t be a top fantasy Defense. It certainly hurts more when a lot of points pile on when you’re not even on the field.
K – Hey, you probably can’t kick a 90-yard field goal.
